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2024-12-14 09:05:32

District 9 of Beijing issued a gale warning. At present, Huairou, Yanqing, Changping, Haidian, Mentougou, Fangshan, Chaoyang, Pinggu and Shijingshan have issued a blue gale warning signal. Today, the wind-cold effect is obvious, and the body feels cold. We should pay attention to wind and cold protection, and stay away from temporary structures such as billboards and tall trees, and do a good job in outdoor aerial work.Reuters opinion polls show that 94% of economists said that the tariffs of US President-elect Trump will have a negative or some negative impact on the Japanese economy; 51 of 52 economists said that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to at least 0.50% before the end of March; 58% of analysts said that the Bank of Japan will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25% in December, compared with 44% in November; The salary increase in Japan's labor negotiations in the next fiscal year is 4.7%, which is lower than the median forecast of 5.1% in this fiscal year.Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.


Afternoon comment: index adjustment The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.49% in half a day. Bean bag concept stocks were strong in early trading, and the index was collectively adjusted in early trading. The three major stock indexes all fell by more than 1%. In terms of sectors, the concept stocks of bean bags were strong in early trading, and the collective daily limit of three-dimensional communication, Beiwei Technology, Global Printing, and Zhewen Internet; The concept of ice and snow industry continued its upward trend. Jingxue energy-saving 20cm daily limit, iceberg cold and hot, snowman shares and other daily limit closures; The game e-sports sector is active, and the daily limit of Zhewen Internet and Electric Soul Network is up; Real estate stocks continued to adjust, and Hefei Urban Construction and Gorgeous Family were among the top losers. Food, liquor and other consumer sectors fell into a callback, and Yiming food fell to a limit; Insurance stocks weakened collectively, led by China Life Insurance. Overall, individual stocks showed a general decline trend, with more than 4,100 stocks falling. On the disk, the Aauto Quicker concept, short play games and cultural media sectors were among the top gainers, while the insurance, liquor and real estate sectors were among the top losers.Lin Yifu: Four advantages empower China's economy and drive global development. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11th and 12th. It was pointed out that in 2025, more active and promising macro policies will be implemented to expand domestic demand and promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation. Lin Yifu, president of Peking University New jiegou Research Institute, said in an interview that the advantages of talent, market, supply chain and system make China continuously competitive, and China will continue to be the driving force of global economic growth. (CGTN)Shenzhen recently released four overcharge standards. According to the news of "Shenzhen Release", yesterday, the reporter learned from the Shenzhen Municipal Market Supervision Administration that Shenzhen has made further progress in promoting the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities, and recently took the lead in releasing four overcharge standards. At present, Shenzhen has issued six leading local standards for overcharging, including the grading evaluation standard for decentralized charging facilities for electric vehicles, grading evaluation standard for centralized charging stations for electric vehicles, long-term failure judgment standard for charging equipment for electric vehicles and management standard for construction of charging facilities for electric vehicles in residential quarters. As of December 5, Shenzhen has guided the construction of 913 overcharging stations, added 121,000 charging facilities and upgraded 3,047 old piles. The official implementation of the four latest overcharge standards issued by Shenzhen indicates that Shenzhen has taken another solid step on the road of building an "overcharged city".


CICC: Depleting inventories to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. In terms of real estate, the meeting will "continue to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" as the primary task of risk prevention. The research department of CICC believes that destocking to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. First, control the supply of new land; second, optimize the supply structure of existing land and commercial housing; it is expected that the supply optimization policies such as land ticket, land exchange and commercial housing reform will be further promoted; third, dispose of existing commercial housing; it is expected that the efforts to store unsold commercial housing and existing second-hand housing for affordable housing will be increased; fourth, intensify the implementation of the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses.The Emir of Qatar and the Prime Minister of Canada discussed the situation in the Middle East by telephone, and the Emir of Qatar (head of state) Tamim telephoned the Prime Minister of Canada Trudeau on the evening of December 12, local time, focusing on the Syrian and Lebanese situations and the conflict in Gaza. (CCTV News)Trader: The Indian central bank may support Indian Rupee by selling dollars through state-owned banks.

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